By Robert J. McCarthy
NEWS POLITICAL REPORTER

Republican incumbent Chris Collins and Democratic challenger Mark C. Poloncarz are locked in a razor-thin battle for county executive, according to a new Siena College Research Institute poll commissioned by The Buffalo News and WGRZ-TV Channel 2.

The survey shows Collins leading 49 to 46 percent, which is within the margin for error of 3.4 percentage points and is considered a statistical tie. The results, which the Siena pollsters labeled “surprising” given Collins’ advantages in finances and incumbency, are almost certain to shake up a so-far sleepy contest as Poloncarz demonstrates a new viability.

Siena spokesman Steven A. Greenberg said he now expects both sides to gear up their efforts in a race he pronounced competitive.

“Right now this does not look like the blowout Chris Collins enjoyed four years ago,” said Greenberg, referring to the Republican’s 63 to 35 percent victory over Democrat James P. Keane in 2007.

The poll, conducted Tuesday and Wednesday among 831 Erie County voters who are likely to vote, shows

the county executive with an overall favorable rating of 55 percent, compared with 41 percent unfavorable. And when asked about Collins’ performance as county executive, the poll shows 50 percent view him favorably while 49 percent rate him fair or poor.

Even some top Republicans privately observed on Saturday that Collins still has not crossed the important 50 percent mark in a direct matchup with Poloncarz, and poll respondents weighed in with their opinions too.

“I don’t like the way he has handled funding for the arts and social services,” said Mary McIntyre, 83, a Republican from East Aurora. “It looks like he’s trying to cut down on the things people need.”

Others believe Collins continues to steer the county in the right direction. Bernadine Genter, 78, a Clarence homemaker, supports the county executive’s approach to funding only arts organizations he deems as beneficial to the area’s tourism and tax generating potential.

“I will vote for Chris Collins because I think he will do his best to get us out of this tax deficit situation,” she said. “If Chris Collins gets re-elected, it’s a good thing because he will be aware of how taxpayers’ money is being spent.”

Indeed, 70 percent of those surveyed say Collins has cut taxes and controlled spending, with even 62 percent of Democrats agreeing he has fulfilled that aspect of his 2007 campaign promises. But he runs into trouble in specific areas, as the poll shows 56 percent of voters feel he has not done enough to support libraries. Another 44 percent think Collins has not done enough for cultural activities, though 43 percent believe he has done enough.

The poll showed 39 percent believe he has not done enough for child care programs, while 33 percent think he has. Even support for county parks, which Collins has touted in his television ads, appears to cause some degree of difficulty for him as 49 percent think he has done enough for parks while 44 percent think he has not.

Respondents also seemed to be in sync with Collins on some of his most celebrated campaign themes like county spending, which ranked as the No. 1 concern at 34 percent. Other top issues included jobs at 31 percent and taxes at 21 percent.

But other issues that have caused varying degrees of controversy for the county executive occupy low standings in the poll. Libraries, for example, ranked at only 6 percent, while the county jail came in at 3 percent and parks, at 1 percent.

Still, Collins remains the “favorite” among most voters, who believe by a 64 to 27 percent tally he will win the election.

While some observers believe Poloncarz receives an unexpected boost from the poll results, the Democrat said Saturday he has felt all along that he is competitive in the race. He derided the constant references by the Collins campaign to “long-shot candidate Poloncarz,” and said he expects voters to take an even closer look at his candidacy.

“I fully expect this to continue the momentum on my side, and I fully expect this to assist in fundraising as well,” he said. “The county executive keeps on saying I can’t win. It’s not a lost cause and this poll shows it.”

Poloncarz, who met with Democratic officials in Albany on Thursday, also predicted that Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo will eventually campaign on his behalf.

“I feel confident the governor will be involved shortly,” he said.

Erie County Democratic Chairman Leonard R. Lenihan said Poloncarz will launch his own television ads this week and predicted even more movement in the polls as a result. He noted that the GOP also characterized Democrat Kathleen C. Hochul as a long shot in the May special election for Congress Ñ and she won.

“Collins has been on TV for weeks, spent hundreds of thousands of dollars and this is basically a dead heat,” he said, adding the new poll is consistent with several private polls he has seen.

Poloncarz still has not posted his campaign finance report on the state Board of Elections website, while Collins has reported about $1.27 million. However, Poloncarz campaign spokesman Peter Anderson said the report will eventually reflect about $225,000 on hand.

Collins declined to speak directly to The News about the poll. But spokesman Stefan Mychajliw faulted the Siena pollsters for some previous results, including its prediction of a close race in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial contest between Rick Lazio and Carl P. Paladino, which Paladino eventually won in a landslide.

He also criticized Channel 2 and The News for previous polls that underestimated the margin of victory by winning candidates.

“We are extremely confident in our internal polling, which shows Chris Collins with a commanding lead over Mark Poloncarz, and overwhelming support in every key demographic segment in Erie County among the voters who will actually turn out to vote on Election Day,” Mychajliw said. “The fact is, this poll is inaccurate and worthless and simply paints a perception that does not exist. Voters overwhelmingly support the job Chris Collins has done as county executive.”

In a prepared statement released this morning, the Collins campaign said the poll “over-sampled” the heavily-Democratic city of Buffalo as well as union households, and “under-sampled” suburban and Republican households while ignoring differences in city and suburban turnouts.

Erie County Republican Chairman Nicholas A. Langworthy also dismissed the poll as unreliable.

“Siena has a history of missing the mark out here,” he said. “I firmly believe the county executive is in the lead by double digits.”

Siena’s Greenberg, meanwhile, conceded missed calls in some races but also pointed to Langworthy’s contention that the college’s final gubernatorial poll of 2010 showing Cuomo leading Paladino by 25 points was also off the mark.

“They all said their internal polls showed it much closer. Cuomo won by 28 points,” Greenberg said. “When campaigns don’t like independent poll results, they like to attack the pollster.”

The institute also can point to its poll released the weekend before the special election to fill the 26th District congressional seat. Siena found that Democrat Kathleen C. Hochul led Republic Jane L. Corwin by four percentage points.

The day after the May 24 special election, with almost all of the votes tallied, Hochul had won the seat by a four-point margin, with 47 percent of the vote compared with Corwin’s 43 percent in the three-person race.

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