BUFFALO, NY – Siena College conducted an independent, scientific poll for 2 On Your Side and the Buffalo News regarding the race for Erie County Executive and which was released on Saturday.
It shows that Republican incumbent Chris Collinsleads Democrat challenger Mark Poloncarz 49% to 46% among likely voters, with 65 of those surveyed saying they remain undecided.
With a margin of error of +/- 3.4%, the poll would indicate that the race is currently a statistical tie.
Since the poll results were released, 2 On Your Side has tried without success to get Chris Collins to speak about them, and now his opponent is saying that’s because Collins is afraid to acknowledge the results.
On Monday, Collins’ campaign spokesman, Stefan Mychajliw, told us Collins would be unavailable to speak on “any” issue, because he decided to spend the holiday weekend with his family.
Mychajliw added that Collins also hasn’t addressed the poll results (which Mychajliw classified as “fictitious”) because he prefers to discuss “the issues important to voters of Erie County”, insisting that polls aren’t among them.
“I know politicians and the media are interested in polls during the campaign season, but the County Executive’s focus remains on serving the people of Erie County,” Mychajliw said.
“He’s not interested in talking about the poll results because he (Collins) is in hiding,” countered Poloncarz. “I’m out there talking to the voters and the media… I’m not afraid to talk directly to people, I’m not afraid to talk to you in the media… but he is.”
Though he has been dwarfed by Collins in terms of raising money for the campaign, Poloncarz says that since the results of the poll were released, donors previously on the fence have decided to contribute to him.
He claims that in particular he is getting donations from people who were “afraid” to donate if they thought he was going to lose because they feared reprisals by Collins, whom he referred to as having a reputation as a “vindictive individual”.
However, when asked by WGRZ-TV to cite a specific incident of this, Poloncarz declined. “I’m not going to name names… but eventually these donors will be known to everyone,” he said, noting they would appear on his campaign’s financial disclosure forms.
Poloncarz also expects the poll results to nudge NY Governor Andrew Cuomo to formally get behind his campaign.
“I feel very confident Gov. Cuomo will be supporting my candidacy soon,” Poloncarz said.
When dismissing the results of the Siena poll when it came out on Saturday, Mychajliw also indicated that internal polling conducted by the Collins campaign showed Collins with a commanding lead.
In press release, Mychajliw stated:
“…we are extremely confident in our internal polling, which shows Chris Collins with a commanding lead over Mark Poloncarz, and overwhelming support in every key demographic segment in Erie County among the voters who will actually turnout to vote on Election Day.”
As this is customarily more than campaigns usually choose to disclose regarding internal polling, 2 On Your Side asked Mychajliw to back up his claim, by releasing the results of the campaign’s polling data citing the following section of the NY State Election law:
§ 6201.2 Use of public opinion polls
-No candidate, political party or committee shall attempt to
promote the success or defeat of a candidate by, directly or
indirectly, disclosing or causing to be disclosed, the results of
a poll relating to a candidate for such office or position, unless
within 48 hours after such disclosure, they provide the
following information concerning the poll to the board or
officer with whom statements or copies of statements of
campaign receipts and expenditures are required to be filed by
the candidate to whom such poll relates:
(a) The name of the person, party or organization that
contracted for or who commissioned the poll and/or paid for
it.
(b) The name and address of the organization that
conducted the poll.
(c) The numerical size of the total poll sample, the
geographic area covered by the poll and any special
characteristics of the population included in the poll sample.
(d) The exact wording of the questions asked in the poll
and the sequence of such questions.
(e) The method of polling-whether by personal interview,
telephone, mail or other.
(f) The time period during which the poll was conducted.
(g) The number of persons in the poll sample; the number
contacted who responded to each specific question; the
number of persons contacted who did not so respond.
(h) The results of the poll.
In an e-mail, Mychajliw declined releasing the polling data, stating:
“We haven’t directly shared numbers outside of our campaign. I have only responded to your fictitious poll that we are comfortable that our internal polling that shows us ahead. Our counsel assures us that we are in compliance with NYS Election Law 6201.2.”
Click on the video player to watch our story from 2 On Your Side Reporter Dave McKinley and Photojournalist Norm Fisher.
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