But Tuesday’s results also hold ramifications for the election in November — and for the man who has dominated Western New York politics for the last four years.
That’s because Republican County Executive Chris Collins will emerge on Wednesday morning as a big winner if Corwin triumphs. But if she stumbles, Collins wears a loser label.
The county executive, you see, has big-time skin in this game. He created Corwin, plucking the former Talking Phone Book executive from the good life in their mutual Spaulding Lake neighborhood and thrusting her into the cauldron of Erie County politics.
Even before Collins recruited Corwin to run for the Assembly in 2008, he was pushing hard to name her brother, Rick Lewis, to the GOP congressional candidacy eventually claimed by Chris Lee. The siblings were both very much part of Collins’ world.
As the county executive prepares for his own reelection campaign this fall, he watches with keen interest from his perch atop the Rath County Office Building. The top members of his political team—Erie County Republican Chairman Nick Langworthy, Chief of Staff Chris Grant and trusted media adviser Michael Hook — have all been dispatched to the Corwin campaign.
They manage an effort mirroring the methods that propelled Collins to an underdog victory in 2007 — right down to emphasizing a business background and heavy reliance on self-financing.
Still, a feeling of unease surrounds the campaign. The Corwin slam-dunk anticipated early on has morphed into a certified cliff-hanger, with nobody sure of Tuesday’s results, given the unpredictable dynamics of a special election.
With some in Republican Land grumbling about the experience of wunderkinds Langworthy and Grant, and the tactics of Hook, Collins has to wonder where this team will take him in November.
“It’s still Corwin’s to lose, but they’ve done too many things to make sure that happens,” said one observer who is close to the race.
The chief criticism surrounds Corwin’s response to the strength of the Davis campaign, fueled by the Newstead industrialist’s $3 million contribution, his recognizable name—and most important—his savvy decision to snare the Tea Party moniker for his line on the ballot. While Corwin and a host of Republican organizations have worked overtime to portray Davis as anything but a tea party guy, some label it a late response.
Langworthy acknowledges the overwhelming Collins influence in the Corwin campaign, but insists the Davis factor remains the reason the race is so unpredictable.
“Sure, it’s a Collins team but it’s not a referendum on Collins,” he said. “And this would be a completely different race if we did not have a multimillion expenditure for a third-party candidate.”
Nevertheless, that’s where this race is. Though Hochul has emerged as a strong Democratic candidate in a Republican district, Corwin’s main source of confidence centers in the strength of the GOP organization throughout the seven-county district. And Collins will have something to say about that, too.
So while the 26th District race commands the attention of the nation this weekend, the Erie County executive may be paying the closest heed of all. Come Tuesday night, he will be viewed as a fortified political lion leaping into November, or a tamed kitty cat licking some self-inflicted wounds.